達(dá)沃斯：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)處于十字路口 （中英雙語）

青島希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）整理發(fā)布2016-01-23

希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）2016年1月23日了解到：Global economy hangs in delicate balance
The world economy is precariously balanced between continued recovery and a third leg of the global financial crisis, according to leading economists attending the World Economic Forum in Davos. 正在達(dá)沃斯出席世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇(World Economic Forum)的一些頂尖經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)處于難以預(yù)料的十字路口，既有可能持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，也有可能遭遇全球金融危機(jī)的第三階段。

The two sharply-contrasting outcomes highlight the uncertainties surrounding the global outlook in 2016 amid fears of a slowdown in China, plunging commodity prices and high levels of corporate US dollar denominated debt in emerging economies. 這兩種反差鮮明的展望突顯了圍繞2016年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的不確定性，其背景是人們擔(dān)心中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌，以及新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體企業(yè)的美元債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)過重。

Economists said the instability threatened to exacerbate the vulnerability of households and companies, which were already responding to disruptive technological changes. 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們表示，這種不穩(wěn)定可能加劇已經(jīng)在應(yīng)對(duì)顛覆性技術(shù)變革的家庭和企業(yè)的脆弱性。

The dilemma facing economists was demonstrated in the International Monetary Fund’s latest update to its World Economic Outlook. 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家面臨的這種兩難困境，在國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)最新版的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》(World Economic Outlook)中表露無遺。

While its central forecast is relatively optimistic, with growth expected to pick up modestly in 2016 and 2017, it also reduced its growth forecasts and acknowledged severe downside risks. 盡管其核心預(yù)測(cè)相對(duì)樂觀（預(yù)計(jì)2016年和2017年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將小幅回升），但《展望》也下調(diào)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，并承認(rèn)存在嚴(yán)重的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Maurice Obstfeld, IMF chief economist, said financial markets, rocked by volatility since the beginning of the year, were “overreacting” but also acknowledged “there was a difficult adjustment ahead in emerging markets”. IMF首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家莫里斯?奧布斯特菲爾德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示，自年初以來受到波動(dòng)性沖擊的金融市場(chǎng)有點(diǎn)“反應(yīng)過度”，但他承認(rèn)“新興市場(chǎng)接下來將面臨一段艱難的調(diào)整”。

Some of the big name economists in the Swiss Alps this week are notably pessimistic, thinking this adjustment will be more difficult than the IMF central forecast expects. 本周匯聚瑞士阿爾卑斯山的一些大牌經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家悲觀得令人矚目，他們認(rèn)為，本次調(diào)整的難度將大于IMF核心預(yù)測(cè)的預(yù)期。

Noting “the third leg of the debt supercycle does seem to be upon us”, Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University said: “Anyone who is still telling the ‘This Time is Different’ story for China has their head in the sand.” 哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)教授肯尼思?羅格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)指出，“債務(wù)超級(jí)周期的第三階段似乎已經(jīng)降臨”。他說：“任何人如果還在講對(duì)中國(guó)來說‘這次不同’的故事，肯定是把他們的頭埋在沙子里?！?span id="y4mwsemgwi0" class="style52">

Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute, Geneva said: “There are a number of vulnerabilities that individually would suggest problems and slow downs, not a crisis with a capital ‘C’. But these vulnerabilities could merge into a new Crisis”. 日內(nèi)瓦國(guó)際關(guān)系及發(fā)展研究生院(Graduate Institute, Geneva)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授理查德?鮑德溫(Richard Baldwin)表示：“當(dāng)前有很多脆弱性，個(gè)別而言它們暗示著問題和放緩，而不是大寫的‘危機(jī)’。但這些脆弱性可能聚在一起，形成一場(chǎng)新的危機(jī)?！?span id="y4mwsemgwi0" class="style52">

According to Nobel laureate professor Michael Spence of the Stern School of Business, New York University: “It is a fragile and deteriorating situation globally with little in the way of effective counter measures.” 諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主、紐約大學(xué)斯特恩商學(xué)院(Stern School of Business)教授邁克爾?斯賓塞(Michael Spence)表示：“當(dāng)前全球形勢(shì)脆弱且日益惡化，卻沒有什么有效的應(yīng)對(duì)措施?！?span id="y4mwsemgwi0" class="style52">

Professor Bob Shiller of Yale University, also a Nobel laureate, warned that the recent falls in financial markets had special significance. 同為諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主的耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)教授鮑勃?席勒(Bob Shiller)警告說，金融市場(chǎng)近期的下跌具有特別的重大意義。

“There is more than the usual salience to this event and?.?.?.?a substantial risk of further such drops,” he said. “這一事件……以及進(jìn)一步下滑的巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，具有異乎尋常的顯著性，”他表示。

While recognising the possibility of something worse, an equal-sized group of economists take comfort from the still-healthy rate of Chinese growth. Expecting a further slowdown in the Chinese rate of expansion, Paul Sheard, chief economist of Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, said an outcome of 6.3 per cent Chinese growth this year would still be positive. 與此同時(shí)，人數(shù)相仿的另一群經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家盡管承認(rèn)形勢(shì)有可能變得更糟，但他們對(duì)中國(guó)保持健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速感到欣慰。評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor’s)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅?謝爾德(Paul Sheard)預(yù)期中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張速度將進(jìn)一步放緩，但表示，如果今年中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)6.3%的增長(zhǎng)，那仍將是積極的。

“Let’s not get carried away here,” Mr Sheard said. “6.3 per cent real GDP growth this year is the equivalent of about 14 per cent growth in 2009, in terms of the size of the increment to global GDP.” “我們不要忘記一件事，”謝爾德表示?！熬蛯?duì)全球GDP的增加而言，中國(guó)今年6.3%的實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)相當(dāng)于2009年大約14%的增長(zhǎng)?！?span id="y4mwsemgwi0" class="style52">

Another Nobel laureate, Professor Christopher Pissarides of the London School of Economics, said the fact that US interest rate rises had been telegraphed for so long should help. 另一位諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主、倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院(London School of Economics)教授克里斯托弗?皮薩里德斯(Christopher Pissarides)表示，美國(guó)很早就預(yù)報(bào)加息這一點(diǎn)應(yīng)該有所幫助。

Meanwhile, China “is still growing reasonably well and the government seems prepared to help the readjustment to the slower growth rate”. 與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)“仍然保持不錯(cuò)的增長(zhǎng)，而且政府似乎準(zhǔn)備在向較慢增速的調(diào)整中提供幫助”。

Professor Ian Golding of Oxford university, noted another reason not to expect a worldwide slide back into recession. 牛津大學(xué)(Oxford university)教授伊恩?戈?duì)柖?Ian Golding)指出了不應(yīng)預(yù)期全球重新陷入衰退的另一個(gè)理由。

“The world economy is now much more resilient than was the case in past decades, due to the number of growth engines. India is picking up, as China slows, and both continue to grow at rates which are unprecedented in the advanced economies,” he said. “相比過去幾十年期間的情況，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)如今具有高得多的韌性，原因在于增長(zhǎng)引擎的數(shù)量。就在中國(guó)放緩的同時(shí)，印度正在加快增長(zhǎng)，且兩國(guó)的增速都仍是發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體聞所未聞的，”他說。

If the big picture for the global economy is teetering between divergent outcomes, households and companies are also struggling with the possibility of even faster technological change. 如果說全球經(jīng)濟(jì)整體面臨截然不同的前景，那么家庭和企業(yè)也在艱難應(yīng)對(duì)技術(shù)變革進(jìn)一步加快的可能性。

Professor Ned Phelps of Columbia University and another Nobel Prize winner, said: “Fears that new technologies may further upset advanced economics seem not yet to threaten business confidence, but they are a cause for worry.” 諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主、哥倫比亞大學(xué)(Columbia University)教授內(nèi)德?菲爾普斯(Ned Phelps)表示：“有關(guān)新技術(shù)可能進(jìn)一步打亂發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的憂慮似乎還沒有影響商業(yè)信心，但這是一件令人擔(dān)心的事情?！?/p>