中國因素攪動全球資產(chǎn)價格 （中英雙語）

青島希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）整理發(fā)布2016-01-12

希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）2016年1月12日了解到：
China-related worries test global asset prices
If viewed on a standalone basis, recent developments in China strictly do not warrant the massive global stock market sell-off and financial dislocations that have followed. 如果單獨來看的話，中國最近的國內(nèi)形勢不能作為解釋全球股市大規(guī)模拋售潮及隨后的金融市場動蕩的全部理由。

Such a narrow assessment, however, ignores the cumulative impact of longer-term distortions that have taken root in the financial system, both inside and outside China. A major adjustment of policies is needed if these distortions are to be resolved in an orderly fashion. Otherwise, market forces could well force a reconciliation that will be a lot more disruptive to the financial system and the global economy. 然而，如此狹隘的論斷忽視了中國國內(nèi)外金融體系在較長期內(nèi)根深蒂固的扭曲的累積影響。要想以有序方式糾正這些扭曲，就有必要對政策做出重大調(diào)整。否則，市場力量很可能強制調(diào)和，這將對金融體系和全球經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生更大的破壞。

China is in the midst of a structural economic transformation that is recasting its growth engines, away from external markets and towards greater reliance on internal demand. With that comes an almost inevitable slowdown in growth, compounding concerns about pockets of credit excess within the economy. 中國正處于改造增長引擎、擺脫外部市場影響并逐步轉(zhuǎn)向更加依賴內(nèi)需的結(jié)構(gòu)性經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型期間。這種轉(zhuǎn)變幾乎不可避免地伴隨著增長放緩，加劇了對中國經(jīng)濟中某些領(lǐng)域信貸泛濫的擔(dān)憂。

Slower growth places a question mark on the government’s prior efforts to widen stock market ownership within China. Deemed as having society-wide merit, that of giving an increasing number of Chinese citizens an even more direct stake in the success of the transition to a market economy, these efforts inadvertently pushed asset prices too far. This is similar to what occurred in the US when it pursued greater home ownership. 經(jīng)濟增長放緩給中國政府?dāng)U大居民持股的首要努力打上問號。這種努力被認(rèn)為具有廣泛的社會價值，讓越來越多的中國居民在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟成功轉(zhuǎn)向市場經(jīng)濟的過程中獲得更為直接的利益，這些努力無形中過度推高了資產(chǎn)價格。這類似于美國在尋求擴大住房所有的時候發(fā)生的情況。

The spillover effects on the global economy have been amplified by four factors. 下面4個因素放大了中國增長放緩對全球經(jīng)濟的溢出效應(yīng)。

First, in an attempt to counter slower growth, the government has guided the currency down in the onshore market; and it has done so in a manner that has also eroded its stabilising influence on the offshore market for the renminbi. 第一，為了應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟增長放緩，中國政府在在岸市場引導(dǎo)人民幣貶值，這么做也削弱了其對人民幣離岸市場的穩(wěn)定作用。

Second, China has been inconsistent in its direct market interventions, including announcing on Thursday a U-turn on the use of circuit breakers that halt trading on its stock market. 第二，中國在直接市場干預(yù)方面的做法前后不一，包括本周四一百八十度大轉(zhuǎn)彎，宣布暫停股市熔斷機制。

Third, the impact of international spillovers has been accentuated by pockets of market illiquidity reflecting limited appetite among broker-dealers for taking on countercyclical risk. 第三，部分市場流動性不足反映出證券經(jīng)紀(jì)機構(gòu)對反周期風(fēng)險的興趣有限，這加劇了國際溢出效應(yīng)的影響。

Finally, to make things even more uncertain, geopolitical risk has risen in the Middle East and Asia. 最后，讓形勢更不穩(wěn)定的是，中東和亞洲地區(qū)的地緣政治風(fēng)險上升。

All this said, the reactions of global financial markets have gone beyond what would be warranted by a narrow interpretation of what is going on in China. After all, the authorities there have many measures available to soft-land their economy. They still run a controlled system that can avoid a forced deleveraging of the type that occurred in the West in 2008 to 2009; and they have ample financial resources to cover policy mis-steps. 盡管如此，全球金融市場的反應(yīng)仍超過了對中國局勢狹隘解讀所能得出的合理水平。畢竟，中國當(dāng)局可以動用諸多舉措讓國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟軟著陸。它們?nèi)赃\營著一個受控的體系，可以避免發(fā)生西方國家在2008年至2009年出現(xiàn)的那種被迫去杠桿的局面。它們也擁有充足的金融資源來覆蓋政策失誤的后果。

But this would be too narrow an analytical perspective. For quite a few years now, asset prices have decoupled from fundamentals as too many countries around the world have relied excessively on experimental monetary policies. And the more central banks were successful in repressing financial volatility through unconventional measures, the greater the amount of risk that investors took on — this in sharp contrast to risk-averse companies where, despite massive cash holdings, investment in new productive activities has been rather muted. 但這種分析角度過于狹隘。多年來，資產(chǎn)價格與基本面脫鉤，原因是世界各地太多的國家過度依賴試驗性的貨幣政策。央行越是成功地通過非常規(guī)措施抑制金融波動，投資者承擔(dān)的風(fēng)險就越大——這與風(fēng)險厭惡的企業(yè)形成鮮明對比，后者盡管手握大量現(xiàn)金，卻沒怎么投資于新的生產(chǎn)性活動。

With central banks now on divergent policy paths, it has become even more urgent to close the gap between high asset prices and sluggish fundamentals. The best way to do so is through a more comprehensive policy approach that unleashes the productive potential of the global economy, addresses deficient aggregate demand issues, and deals with chronic areas of over-indebtedness. 隨著各國央行現(xiàn)在政策路徑產(chǎn)生分歧，彌合資產(chǎn)價格高企與基本面疲弱之間的脫節(jié)變得更為緊迫。最好的辦法是通過更全面的政策手段釋放全球經(jīng)濟的生產(chǎn)潛力，解決總需求不足問題，并處理長期的過度負債問題。

This, however, requires political systems to step up to their economic governance responsibilities. In the absence of such a policy pivot, financial market volatility will continue to increase, causing bouts of price overshoots and contagion that could also harm the real economy. 然而，這需要政策體系加快承擔(dān)它們的經(jīng)濟治理責(zé)任。在缺少這樣的政策重心的情況下，金融市場波動將繼續(xù)增加，導(dǎo)致數(shù)輪價格劇烈波動并蔓延至其他領(lǐng)域，這也可能破壞實體經(jīng)濟。

While triggered in the short term by China-related concerns, what we are seeing this week on financial markets is, in fact, a broader phenomenon. It speaks to the gradual ending of a world in which central banks have been both able and willing to suppress financial volatility. The longer it takes for other policymaking entities to step in, the higher the risk of even greater financial instability and economic insecurity down the road. 盡管從短期來看是由于對中國的擔(dān)憂所引發(fā)，但我們本周在金融市場看到的實際上是一種更為廣泛的現(xiàn)象。它表明一個各國央行既有能力也愿意抑制金融波動的世界的逐漸消亡。其他政策制定機構(gòu)介入越慢，未來發(fā)生金融不穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟不安全的風(fēng)險就越大。

Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic adviser to Allianz, chair of President Obama’s Global Development Council, and author of the forthcoming book “The Only Game in Town” 本文作者是安聯(lián)集團(Allianz)首席經(jīng)濟顧問、美國總統(tǒng)巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的全球發(fā)展委員會(Global Development Council)主席，即將出版新書《The Only Game in Town》