人民幣入籃將推動(dòng)貨幣格局“再平衡” （中英雙語(yǔ)）

青島希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）整理發(fā)布2015-12-10

希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）2015年12月10日了解到：The announcement that the renminbi meets the International Monetary Fund’s criteria as a “freely usable” currency will have come as no surprise to those who have followed China’s unprecedented steps to open up its capital markets. 人民幣達(dá)到國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)“可自由使用”貨幣的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，這一宣言并不會(huì)讓那些一直關(guān)注中國(guó)開(kāi)放資本市場(chǎng)的空前舉措的人感到驚訝。

It means a technical hurdle on the renminbi’s ascent as a global currency has been cleared away and makes it near certain that the IMF executive board will include the Chinese currency into its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket of currencies, effective from October 1 next year. 這意味著，人民幣崛起為一種全球性貨幣的技術(shù)障礙已經(jīng)被掃除，IMF執(zhí)行董事會(huì)將把人民幣納入特別提款權(quán)(SDR)貨幣籃子，明年10月1日起正式生效。

A monumental milestone for the renminbi, this event would trigger significant but gradual inflows of funds into the currency, changing the global currency landscape forever, as central banks, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and multilateral institutions recalibrate their balance sheets. 這對(duì)人民幣來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)重大里程碑，隨著各國(guó)央行、主權(quán)財(cái)富基金(SWF)和多邊機(jī)構(gòu)重新調(diào)整各自的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，這將促使總額龐大資金逐步流入人民幣，永久改變?nèi)蜇泿鸥窬帧?span id="y4mwsemgwi0" class="style52">

Many will not wait until next year before taking action. Indeed as many as 70 central banks have already invested part of their reserves into renminbi, either inside China or offshore. 很多機(jī)構(gòu)不會(huì)等到明年才采取行動(dòng)。事實(shí)上，多達(dá)70家央行已經(jīng)把一部分儲(chǔ)備投資于人民幣，這些資產(chǎn)或是在中國(guó)境內(nèi)，或是在離岸市場(chǎng)。

The reforms made by China to qualify for SDR inclusion have been so radical that — to public sector investors — the renminbi has become fully convertible with no restrictions on access or size of investment in the China interbank bond market, something that has gone largely unnoticed. 為了取得被納入SDR的資格，中國(guó)進(jìn)行的改革十分徹底，以至于對(duì)公共部門(mén)投資者而言，人民幣已經(jīng)變得完全可兌換，在中國(guó)銀行間債券市場(chǎng)沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)入或投資規(guī)模的限制，這件事情在很大程度上被人們忽視了。

Six out of the world’s 10 largest central banks have so far refrained from investing in the Chinese interbank bond market. However, because of China’s recent reforms, these and many other public sector investors are now reviewing their stance. 世界10家最大央行中的6家迄今未曾投資中國(guó)銀行間債券市場(chǎng)。然而，由于中國(guó)近期推行的改革，這些央行和其他許多公共部門(mén)投資者正在重新考慮它們的立場(chǎng)。

Eventually, we should expect to see the renminbi reach a double-digit share of global reserves — inflows in the order of $800bn to more than $1tn. Even a conservative estimate of a reallocation of about 1 per cent of global reserves each year would mean about $80bn inflows annually — no mean sum. 最終，我們應(yīng)該有望看到人民幣在全球儲(chǔ)備中的比例達(dá)到兩位數(shù)，資金流入介于8000億至逾1萬(wàn)億美元。即使進(jìn)行保守估計(jì)，假設(shè)每年大約有1%的全球儲(chǔ)備重新分配，那也意味著每年約800億美元的資金流入——這不是一個(gè)小數(shù)目。

Added to the moves by central banks, will be those by SWFs. Norway’s SWF alone is likely to invest over $40bn according to their GDP weighted benchmark. 央行以外，采取行動(dòng)的還將包括主權(quán)財(cái)富基金。僅挪威主權(quán)財(cái)富基金就可能根據(jù)其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)加權(quán)基準(zhǔn)，對(duì)人民幣投資逾400億美元。

The implementation of the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket 10 months from now is also set to inevitably trigger a significant rebalancing or hedging demand for the Chinese currency, though this, too, is likely to occur gradually. 10個(gè)月后，人民幣加入SDR將正式生效，這也將不可避免地帶來(lái)對(duì)人民幣的可觀再平衡或?qū)_需求，盡管這同樣可能是漸進(jìn)的。

Contrary to common perceptions — given that the aggregate SDR assets of the central banks in the IMF member states (around $280bn) have an equal amount of SDR liabilities — the renminbi’s addition to the SDR basket would not actually trigger a system-wide hedging demand, though some countries that are long or short on SDR may hedge their positions. 和普遍看法相左——考慮到IMF成員國(guó)央行的總SDR資產(chǎn)（約為2800億美元）伴隨著相同數(shù)額的總SDR負(fù)債——人民幣被納入SDR貨幣籃子并不會(huì)引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性的對(duì)沖需求，盡管有些對(duì)SDR做多或做空的國(guó)家或許要對(duì)其持有頭寸進(jìn)行對(duì)沖。

Instead, by far the most significant direct effect from the RMB’s inclusion on currency flows would come from multilateral institutions. The IMF’s own investment account and investment by its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust would need to be rebalanced to include the renminbi. 相反，人民幣“入籃”對(duì)貨幣流動(dòng)最顯著的直接影響將來(lái)自于多邊機(jī)構(gòu)。IMF自身的投資賬戶，及其減貧和發(fā)展信托(PRGT)的投資，都需要進(jìn)行再平衡以納入人民幣。

Likewise, institutions such as the Bank of International Settlements, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the Arab Monetary Fund and the International Fund for Agricultural Development have SDR-denominated balance sheets, which would need to be rebalanced. 同樣的，國(guó)際清算銀行(BIS)、非洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(African Development Bank)、伊斯蘭開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(Islamic Development Bank)、阿拉伯貨幣基金組織(Arab Monetary Fund)、國(guó)際農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展基金(International Fund for Agricultural Development)等擁有以SDR計(jì)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的組織，都需要進(jìn)行再平衡。

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank would also be affected as some of their facilities for the world’s poorest countries are denominated in SDR. The combined size of these multilateral institutions’ SDR denominated balance sheets is around $600bn, so the resulting renminbi flows could be more than $80bn assuming existing SDR weighting methodology. 世界銀行(World Bank)和亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(ADB)也會(huì)受到影響，因?yàn)樗鼈優(yōu)槭澜缱钬毨?guó)家提供的一些安排以SDR計(jì)價(jià)。這些多邊組織以SDR計(jì)價(jià)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表總規(guī)模大約為6000億美元，因此如果采用現(xiàn)有的SDR權(quán)重計(jì)算方法，由此帶來(lái)的人民幣流動(dòng)將超過(guò)800億美元。

The renminbi’s weight in the SDR basket has been the only big issue left for the IMF executive board to decide. Recent suggestions by some stakeholders that using existing methodology could leave the renminbi with too big a share of the basket (at around 14 per cent, far greater than that of the pound and the yen) will hopefully have been ignored the Board. 人民幣在SDR貨幣籃子中的權(quán)重是IMF執(zhí)行董事會(huì)需要決定的最后一個(gè)重大問(wèn)題（IMF最新宣布的人民幣權(quán)重是10.92%——譯注）。一些股東最近提出，如果使用現(xiàn)有算法，人民幣在SDR貨幣籃子中的權(quán)重可能會(huì)過(guò)大（大約為14%，遠(yuǎn)超英鎊和日元），但I(xiàn)MF董事會(huì)很可能會(huì)忽略這樣的說(shuō)法。

While the current weighting formula may not be ideal, the renminbi and the markets are fully ready to handle the direct implications of the SDR inclusion with the existing weighting methodology. 盡管目前的權(quán)重計(jì)算公式或許不理想，但人民幣和市場(chǎng)都已經(jīng)完全準(zhǔn)備好應(yīng)對(duì)人民幣以目前的權(quán)重算法加入SDR籃子的直接影響。

The writer is managing director and head of central banks and sovereign wealth funds at Standard Chartered Bank. He previously worked for the IMF and the central banks of New Zealand and Finland. 本文作者是渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)央行和主權(quán)財(cái)富基金業(yè)務(wù)主管和董事總經(jīng)理，曾任職于國(guó)際貨幣基金組織、新西蘭央行和芬蘭央行

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