服務(wù)業(yè)成中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)鍵（中英雙語）

青島希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）整理發(fā)布2015-12-07

希尼爾翻譯公司（www.marshallsfreshproduce.com）2015年12月7日了解到：銀行、培訓(xùn)和醫(yī)療行業(yè)是中國(guó)政策制定者和國(guó)際對(duì)華投資者雙方的“圣杯”。在北京方面希望靠服務(wù)業(yè)提振不斷放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的背景下，私募股權(quán)(PE)和其他機(jī)構(gòu)開始在中國(guó)收購醫(yī)院、英語學(xué)校和消費(fèi)信貸企業(yè)。Banking, tutoring and healthcare are the holy grail both for China’s policymakers and its international investors. As Beijing looks to services to rev up slowing economic growth, private equity and others are buying into hospitals, English schools and consumer lenders.

Property sales and factory construction are slowing but people in China are eagerly availing themselves of healthcare, tutoring and movie tickets. Beijing’s slow-burning bid to rebalance the economy towards consumption has received a boost from services, which account for 51 per cent of GDP, up from 44 per cent in 2011. 房地產(chǎn)銷售和工廠建設(shè)正在放緩，但中國(guó)人開始熱衷于在醫(yī)療、教育和電影票上花錢。北京方面文火慢燉的經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡努力已從服務(wù)業(yè)得到了提振。目前，服務(wù)業(yè)占中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的比例達(dá)到51%，高于2011年的44%。

The economy is on track for its weakest full-year growth in a quarter of a century. Without rapid expansion in financial services, education and healthcare, among other services, the overall slowdown would have been much worse. 今年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將是四分之一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來最慢的。若不是金融服務(wù)、教育和醫(yī)療等服務(wù)行業(yè)快速增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體放緩程度將嚴(yán)重得多。

“It’s quite clear that China’s services sector is doing much better than the manufacturing and construction sectors,” said Jianguang Shen, China economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong. “很明顯，中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)目前的表現(xiàn)比制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)好得多，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)駐香港的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家沈建光表示。

But gaps in the official data make it tricky to assess which service industries are driving growth, fuelling doubts about whether apparent progress on rebalancing is real. 但是，官方數(shù)據(jù)的缺漏，使人很難評(píng)估到底是哪些服務(wù)行業(yè)正在推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，進(jìn)而讓人對(duì)再平衡是否確實(shí)大有進(jìn)展感到懷疑。

Financial services were the biggest contributor to overall service-sector growth in the first half of the year. As the Chinese stock market boomed, trading commissions and other stock services pumped up brokerage profits. But after the market tumbled in July and August, analysts expected a decline in financial services to drag down the broader services sector. 今年上半年，金融服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)總體增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)最大。隨著中國(guó)股市大漲，交易傭金和其他證券服務(wù)提高了券商的利潤(rùn)。但在7月和8月股市下跌之后，分析師們預(yù)計(jì)，金融服務(wù)業(yè)的下滑將拖累整體服務(wù)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)。

However, the opposite occurred. While financial services moderated in the third quarter, overall services growth accelerated from 8.3 per cent in the first half to 8.6 per cent in the third quarter, well above the 6.9 per cent growth of the broader economy. 然而情況正相反，盡管第三季度金融服務(wù)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩，但服務(wù)業(yè)整體增速卻從上半年的8.3%提高到了8.6%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于6.9%的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增速。

The fastest growth came from “other” services, a broad category that includes healthcare, education, entertainment and culture, science and research, business services and utilities — fully 20 per cent of the economy. Lack of detail on which of these services grew the most has led to suspicions that China’s statistics bureau is using this category as a fudge factor to ensure headline GDP growth meets the government’s full-year target of "around 7 per cent". 增長(zhǎng)最快的是“其他”服務(wù)行業(yè)，這是一個(gè)包括醫(yī)療、教育、娛樂與文化、科學(xué)與研究、商業(yè)服務(wù)和公用事業(yè)的廣泛類別——在經(jīng)濟(jì)總量中的比重達(dá)到20%。其中哪些行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)最快不得而知，讓人懷疑中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局是否把這一類別當(dāng)作一個(gè)彈性因子，來確保總體GDP增長(zhǎng)率符合政府提出的“7%左右”的全年目標(biāo)。

“The answer to the question of whether China’s economy is sinking or swimming lies in its service sector,” wrote Mark Williams, China economist at Capital Economics. “中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)到底是在下沉還是在向前游？答案在于服務(wù)業(yè)，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)寫道。

Foreign investors are betting the services growth story is real. TPG last year joined a consortium that spent $461m to acquire a high-end private hospital operator. In June KKR bought a $91m stake in Tarena International, a US-listed provider of professional education services. 外國(guó)投資者正在押注中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)確實(shí)在增長(zhǎng)。TPG去年和某財(cái)團(tuán)聯(lián)手斥資4.61億美元收購了一家高端私人醫(yī)院運(yùn)營(yíng)商。今年6月，KKR斥資9100萬美元入股達(dá)內(nèi)科技(Tarena International)，后者在美國(guó)上市，提供職業(yè)教育服務(wù)。

UK Prime Minister David Cameron has cited the potential for Britain’s service industries to invest in China as key motivations for his government's aggressive courtship of the country. 英國(guó)首相戴維?卡梅倫(David Cameron)把英國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)在中國(guó)投資的潛力稱作他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的政府向中國(guó)大力示好的關(guān)鍵動(dòng)機(jī)。

As Mr Shen at Mizuho points out, Chinese demand for education outstrips supply. 正如瑞穗證券的沈建光指出的那樣，中國(guó)的教育領(lǐng)域存在供不應(yīng)求狀況。

“Household demand for these high-end services can't be satisfied, which is why you see Chinese people visiting other countries to study abroad and for medical tourism,” he says. “中國(guó)家庭對(duì)這些高端服務(wù)的需求無法得到滿足，這也是你看到很多中國(guó)人出國(guó)留學(xué)和進(jìn)行醫(yī)療旅游的原因，”沈建光稱。

Finance is another target area. In June, Standard Chartered’s PE unit invested $207m in peer-to-peer lender Dianrong, which targets consumers and small businesses underserved by incumbent banks. 金融是另一個(gè)投資目標(biāo)。6月，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)私募股權(quán)部門向P2P網(wǎng)貸平臺(tái)“點(diǎn)融網(wǎng)”投資2.07億美元，后者以那些沒有從現(xiàn)有銀行得到充分服務(wù)的消費(fèi)者和小企業(yè)為目標(biāo)客戶。

Domestic companies are also positioning themselves to target the service sector. Chinese investors made their first foray into English football this week, with Citic Capital and a Shanghai-based private equity fund buying a minority stake in the owner of Manchester City. The group hopes to bring the club to play matches in China. 中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)也瞄準(zhǔn)了服務(wù)業(yè)。上周，中國(guó)投資者首次進(jìn)軍英國(guó)足球，中信資本(Citic Capital)及一家上海私募股權(quán)基金聯(lián)合收購了曼城足球俱樂部(MCFC)東家的少數(shù)股權(quán)。該集團(tuán)希望讓曼城來中國(guó)踢比賽。

Dalian Wanda Group, parent of China’s largest commercial property developer, is branching out into theme parks, online retail and financial services. Evergrande Real Estate, the second-largest residential developer, last week bought a life assurer. 中國(guó)最大商業(yè)地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商的母公司大連萬達(dá)集團(tuán)(Dalian Wanda Group)，正開始涉足主題公園、在線零售以及金融服務(wù)業(yè)。中國(guó)第二大住宅地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商恒大地產(chǎn)(Evergrande Real Estate)，不久前收購了一家人壽保險(xiǎn)公司。

Services are also key to Beijing’s goal of reducing reliance on debt-fueled investment and generating more growth from consumption. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia and New Zealand Bank, estimates that services excluding shelter account for about 30 per cent of China’s consumer price index, which aims to reflect the typical consumer’s spending patterns. 對(duì)于中國(guó)政府希望減少對(duì)債務(wù)驅(qū)動(dòng)型投資的依賴、以及更多地靠消費(fèi)拉動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)的目標(biāo)來說，服務(wù)業(yè)也是個(gè)關(guān)鍵。澳新銀行(ANZ)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家劉利剛預(yù)計(jì)，服務(wù)業(yè)（不含居住類）在中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)中約占30%比重。該指數(shù)旨在反映消費(fèi)者支出的典型模式。

Goldman Sachs has sought to identify growth sectors by looking for areas where Chinese consumption lags behind that of Japan, Korea and the US. 高盛(Goldman Sachs)試圖通過找出中國(guó)落后于日本、韓國(guó)和美國(guó)的消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域，來確定哪些屬于增長(zhǎng)的行業(yè)。

“Chinese consumers spend quite heavily on food and clothing but are under-consuming on desires such as healthcare and entertainment,” analysts wrote in a recent note. They said China’s ageing population also meant households were likely to spend more and more on such things. “中國(guó)消費(fèi)者在吃穿方面的花費(fèi)相當(dāng)多，但是在醫(yī)療和娛樂等方面的消費(fèi)不足，”分析師們?cè)诮诘膱?bào)告中寫道。他們稱，中國(guó)日益老齡化的人口意味著普通家庭在這些方面的花費(fèi)可能會(huì)越來越多。

Chinese healthcare spending grew 12.6 per cent in 2013 but still totalled only 5.6 per cent of GDP, compared with 10.3 per cent in Japan and 17.1 per cent in the US, according to World Bank figures. In entertainment, movie box office revenue soared by 49 per cent in the first half of this year. 世界銀行(World Bank)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2013年中國(guó)醫(yī)療支出增長(zhǎng)了12.6%，但是仍然僅占GDP的5.6%，相比之下日本和美國(guó)的醫(yī)療支出占比分別為10.3%和17.1%。在娛樂業(yè)，今年上半年中國(guó)電影票房收入猛增49%。

Even if services do alleviate the slowdown in China’s domestic economy, the rebalancing will provide little relief to those around the world who relied on the country’s old growth model. 即便服務(wù)業(yè)確實(shí)減輕了中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)的放緩程度，但對(duì)于世界各地依賴于中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)增長(zhǎng)模式的經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡進(jìn)程不會(huì)給它們帶來安慰。

“Strength in the service sector is unlikely to provide much support for countries that export commodities to China,” Mark Spiegel, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, wrote in a recent report. “中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁不太可能為那些向中國(guó)出口大宗商品的國(guó)家提供多大支持，”舊金山聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克?施皮格爾(Mark Spiegel)在最近一份報(bào)告中寫道。

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